ICG Analysis on Sheikh Hasina’s Political Comeback

DHAKA, November 18, 2025 – The International Crisis Group (ICG), a global organisation dedicated to preventing and resolving conflicts, believes the death sentence handed down to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has made the prospects of her political comeback “very slim.” The organisation shared its reaction on Monday following the verdict.

The ICG suggests that as long as Sheikh Hasina remains the leader of the Awami League (AL), the party’s chances of returning to the political arena are minimal. The AL government, led by Hasina, was overthrown in the face of a mass movement on August 5 last year, after which she took refuge in India.

The interim government, responding to demands from various sectors, temporarily banned the activities of the Awami League and its affiliated wings. Subsequently, the Election Commission suspended the AL’s registration as a political party. Last week, Chief Adviser of the Interim Government, Dr Muhammad Yunus, stated that the Awami League would not be allowed to contest the upcoming general election.

The ICG, which is monitoring developments in Bangladesh following the International Crimes Tribunal’s (ICT) death sentence against the former Prime Minister and AL President, offered critical commentary.

Thomas Kean, Senior Consultant for the International Crisis Group, stated, “The verdict against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for crimes against humanity will be widely welcomed in Bangladesh. There is little doubt about her responsibility for the atrocities committed against protesters during the July-August 2024 crackdown.”

Kean referenced a UN investigation report, which already concluded that the suppression, which claimed nearly 1,400 lives, was conducted with the “full knowledge, coordination, and direction of the political leadership.”

The investigation specifically identified Sheikh Hasina and one of her co-defendants, former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan, for responsibility. Further evidence was presented during the ICT trial, including recordings of Sheikh Hasina discussing the crackdown and testimony from the country’s former police chief.

However, Kean noted that the judicial process was not above criticism. “Trying a case in absentia often creates controversy, and in this instance, the quick pace of the trial and the defendant’s lack of access to adequate evidence raise questions about the fairness of the judicial process,” he said.

He views these criticisms as reflective of the long-standing challenges within Bangladesh’s criminal justice system, which the interim government has not substantially addressed since taking power in August 2024.

Despite the criticisms of the trial, Kean stressed: “These issues should not be used to downplay or dismiss the actions of Sheikh Hasina and the crimes committed by the Awami League leadership and some members of the security forces.”

Concluding his analysis, Kean reiterated the political fallout: “The political implications of this verdict are profound. The possibility of Sheikh Hasina’s political comeback in Bangladesh now appears very slim. Furthermore, as long as she refuses to relinquish leadership of the Awami League, the party’s own prospects of returning to the political arena also remain limited.”

As the country moves toward the much-anticipated national election scheduled for February 2026, the ICG senior consultant noted that a recent series of bombings and the Awami League’s declared “all-out lockdown” have unsettled the nation. He urged the Awami League to refrain from violent acts and called on the interim government to avoid severe crackdowns on AL supporters.